Almost all of the data designed for marketing is, well, marketing. It is designed to give consumers a sense of urgency, so they will buy and sell.

A former client wrote me:

Hey Rona,

Hope you are well. Do these numbers look accurate to you?

-J.

Are the numbers accurate? Yes. A licensed real estate agent is not going to publish fraudulent data. The data are accurate. This data was compiled from actual Multiple Listing Service information, then packaged into easy-to-read charts. (The data he used is at the bottom of this post.)

The real question – that J. didn’t ask — is, does it give a true picture of the market? No.

The link to the data will open in another window, if you want to follow along. Let’s look at what the first chart says, since the rest of the graphs are meant to illustrate those points.

  1. There is a decrease in properties for sale. There are fewer properties on the market. The data does not say anything about the date(s) of this decrease. Were there fewer properties on the market, in total, in January 2018 compared to December 2017? Were there fewer properties on the market, on an average day, in January 2018 compared to an average day in December 2017? Were there fewer properties on the market on February 4th compared to January 4, 2018?
  2. There is an increase in new properties on the market. There were more properties listed in January 2018 than in December 2017. Or does that mean there were more new properties on the market on February 4, 2018, compared with January 4, 2018?

 

  1. There is a decrease in average asking price, per square foot. Sellers were asking for less per square foot of interior space. This measurement works well for condos, but does not accurately reflect price for single and multifamily houses, where the land value is important.
  2. The average sale price increased. If the average price increased, but sellers were asking less per square foot, then we know some very large properties were sold this month.
  3. The average sale price, as a percentage of asking price, went down. In the current market, buyers are frequently paying over the initial asking price. The amount of overbidding, on average, went down. Remember that asking prices, per square foot, also went down.
  4. The average sale price, per square foot, went up. More properties with a high price per square foot were sold than properties with a lower price per square foot.

 

  1. There is an increase in days on the market before properties under agreement. When properties are on the market longer, it generally indicates a reduction in demand.
So, to answer J., the data is accurate, but it doesn’t tell you anything that is particularly useful to you as a condo owner or as a potential buyer.

Here’s what you now know:

Properties came on the market this month, but on some date you don’t know, there were fewer properties for sale than on some other date you don’t know.

 

 

Sellers asked less for their properties this month, per square foot. Buyers paid less, on average, over asking price than last month. Some large properties were sold at high prices, which drove the average sale price up. The sale price, per square foot, was calculated somehow to show that went up, too.

The problem with this whole section is that the data is depending on averages. With a total of 42 properties, the sample size is too small to conclude anything relevant from an average sale. The lowest was $430,000 for a condo to a $2,560,000 six-family house.

 

Properties stayed on the market longer, on average, in January. This could be an indication of softening of buyer demand, but it is more likely to be a normal market of mid-winter.

 

 

Price Range # of
Listings		 Avg. Days
on Market		 Avg. Days
to Offer		 Average
Sale Price		 Average
List Price		 SP:LP
Ratio		 Average
Orig Price		 SP:OP
Ratio
$0 – $49,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$50,000 – $99,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$100,000 – $149,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$150,000 – $199,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$200,000 – $249,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$250,000 – $299,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$300,000 – $349,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$350,000 – $399,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$400,000 – $449,999 1 12 12 $430,000 $439,000 98 $439,000 98
$450,000 – $499,999 2 58 7 $485,250 $469,950 104 $469,950 104
$500,000 – $599,999 2 45 45 $538,017 $534,450 101 $534,450 101
$600,000 – $699,999 3 33 21 $658,667 $617,633 107 $629,300 106
$700,000 – $799,999 10 37 25 $761,090 $755,190 101 $772,180 99
$800,000 – $899,999 2 49 42 $837,500 $899,950 93 $899,950 93
$900,000 – $999,999 3 12 7 $961,333 $922,967 104 $922,967 104
$1,000,000 – $1,499,999 13 55 44 $1,180,377 $1,212,738 98 $1,248,660 95
$1,500,000 – $1,999,999 3 13 6 $1,671,667 $1,614,667 103 $1,614,667 103
$2,000,000 – $2,499,999 1 23 23 $2,200,000 $2,300,000 96 $2,500,000 88
$2,500,000 – $2,999,999 2 66 52 $2,530,000 $2,625,000 97 $2,600,000 97
$3,000,000 – $3,999,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$4,000,000 – $4,999,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$5,000,000 – $9,999,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
$10,000,000 – $99,999,999 0 0 0 $0 $0 0 $0 0
Total Properties 42 Avg. 41 Avg. 30 $1,053,389 $1,061,452 100 $1,081,021 99
Lowest Price: $430,000 Median Price: $943,000
Highest Price: $2,560,000 Average Price: $1,053,389
Total Market Volume: $44,242,333

source: MLSPIN