Somewhere around May or June, I started mentioning to my agents that we might experience an election slump. We’ve had one every Presidential election year, except 2020. Would the pattern begin again in 2024? If there is an election slump, it’ll be happening any minute.

Hint to buyers: any reduction in demand is a good time to negotiate with a seller!

There have been fewer home sales, overall, for the last few years because there are not enough houses and condos on the market. This year, there has been more property for sale, but the number of sales is still down from pre-pandemic-lockdown levels.

Anecdotally, our office is experiencing a significant slow-down in inquiries coming from professional associations like the Massachusetts Association of Buyer’s Agents and the National Association of Exclusive Buyer’s Agents. Word on the street from other brokers is that they are seeing the slowdown that everyone expected.

Our company is bucking the trend. We are set for our third or fourth best year ever, overall, on the power of our personal referral network. People who come to us from our former clients are still coming.

Election year 2024

Last Sunday, New York Times writers, Ronda Kaysen and Jordyn Holman published an article entitled I Can’t Buy a House. I Can’t Shop. I’m Too Worried About the Election. (Gift link)

The looming presidential election — with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump locked in a dead heat in the polls — has injected one variable too many into an already confusing time for the economy, with inflation, high interest rates and a surprisingly strong job market. The country is on edge, and consumers on both sides of the political aisle are reluctant to make big-ticket purchases. They are holding their pocketbooks close.

Housing policies, contrasted

Have the people who expect that the President will change their experience of buying a house or condo looked into the candidates’ statements about housing?

This is the summary, from the NYT:

Ms. Harris’s housing plan calls for building three million affordable housing units within four years. She proposes creating a tax incentive to build homes that are affordable to first-time buyers, expanding an incentive to build affordable rental homes, and setting up a $40 billion “innovation fund” for developers and builders who come up with viable plans to add affordable housing.

She wants to give up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time home buyers, and she has endorsed a bill called the Stop Predatory Investing Act that would create tax penalties for investors who buy large numbers of rental units.

The Republican Party platform, which Mr. Trump and his campaign led the drafting of, calls for opening “limited portions of federal lands to allow for new home construction” and reducing inflation in order to lower mortgage rates. (The president has no direct control over interest rates.)

It also calls for “tax incentives and support for first-time buyers” and for cutting “unnecessary regulations that raise housing costs.” Mr. Trump’s campaign did not provide details on what these incentives would involve or what regulations he would cut.

In his first term, his budget requests urged Congress to reduce funding for federal housing programs, including eliminating the National Housing Trust Fund and the HOME Investment Partnerships program, which provide money to build, repair and operate housing for low-income Americans. Congress did not agree.

Mr. Trump has blamed immigrants for a lack of affordable housing, an assessment economists reject. He wants to make undocumented immigrants ineligible for mortgages.

Consider these policies carefully. Twelve days until the US general election.